Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Making Nice-Nice With Dictatorships Is Not Only Unproductive, It's Dangerous

So, since President Obama began a new and kinder diplomacy with N. Korea what has happened? What has been their response to being nicer to them?
  1. Although Bush had achieved a preliminary agreement with N. Korea on stopping their nuclear plans in return for aid and a better relationship, that agreement was scraped by Obama in favor of one based more on 'mutual respect'. Mr. President, that can only work if there's a reasonable chance the other guy is even capable of being, much less willing to be, respectful. N. Korea has rejected all of Obama's overtures so, instead of having something that's better than what Bush's adminstration developed, we now have nothing at all. In fact, we just found out that shortly after Obama took office, they began construction of a new uranium enrichment facility intended to support nuclear weapons production. Talk about in your face! Their actions suggest they think they had a better chance of getting away with it than under the Bush deal.
  2. Obama recently went on a good will tour and apolgized to them again and asked them for a more cooperative relationship ... the new agreement he's wanted instead of Bush's. They gave him nothing. How's that new diplomacy working out sir?
  3. Shortly after Obama's recent visit N. Korea announced they not only began construction of the aforementioned uranium enrichment facility but that it's already becoming operational. The fact that it has some 2,000 centrifuges means ONLY one thing. They don't need that many centrifuges to enrich uranium sufficient for use in power plants. Guess what the plant's main purpose is! How IS that new diplomacy working out sir?
  4. Yesterday they launched a mortar (maybe rockets too?) attack on a S. Korean island. I'd call that pretty provocative. S. Korea didn't do anything deserving of something that aggressive and today S. Korea basically said if they do any more of that it'll mean "an enormous retaliation". Too close to war to suit me. That's the kind of thing that can get escalated beyond a country's ability to avoid a major conflict, especially when the leadership on one side is disinclined to be (if not incapable of being) rational. And even more especially if they think S. Korea's allies are too weak-willed to actually do anything about it! Major wars (I'm talking world war as well) have begun over less. How is that new, kinder/gentler diplomacy working out sir?

When they have gone so far as to make an agreement with Western nations, N. Korea has broken every one of them ... after they got what they wanted. To them, diplomacy is just another weapon to use on countries naive and stupid enough to believe they haven't been lied to.

Democrats have tried this before so why would supposedly rational people think the results would be different this time? Clinton famously negotiated an agreement with N. Korea not to develop nuclear weapons if we'd give them food and other aid. While (not even after!) they were getting the aid WE promised, they were breaking THEIR promise and were developing nuclear energy for the purpose of building nuclear weapons. Don't the events of the past two weeks affirm anything rational? Is it more or less rational to expect them to build more and more powerful WMD's as well as delivery vehicles no matter how nice we are to them? Time to live in the real world Mr. President. This isn't a classroom. It's real life.

This is what bullies do and being nice to them only reflects weakness to them and encourages them to bully us and our allies more, not less. This pie-in-the-sky approach to dealing with dictatorships, bullies and psychopaths (that only 'works' in Harvard classrooms) is not only unrealistic and a huge waste of time, it makes the world a flat-out more dangerous place. History, if one were to examine 'real' history, shows time and again that this is what that kind of nutjob ruler can be counted on to do. It's tempting, in response to what N. Korea has done the past week, to think they're just unpredictable. In fact, history (if you're interested in facts) tells us this is exactly what we can expect from power-hungry thugs.

In fact, Iran is doing exactly the same thing as N. Korea has done for the past 20 years and our current leaders are acting as if N. Korea is an exception. N. Korea DID export its nuclear weapons technology to countries unfriendly to us. Iran WILL do the same thing but the really important difference is that Iran exports terrorism as well. Soon those terrorists will be armed with nukes! History tells us it's irrational to assume they won't do that. The 'new diplomacy' not only didn't work in N. Korea, it emboldened them against a perceived weak enemy. It would take ignoring history and human nature to conclude Iran is a different situation. Although, it IS different to the extent that the consequences there will be FAR worse.

This is a very dangerous game our current leaders are playing with international diplomacy, thinking that being nice to bullies, thugs and psychopaths will make them want to be nice back. As on the playground, if you don't stand your ground early and forcefully enough, they'll kick you in your 'junk'. Our current leaders think diplomacy is just a tool. To the likes of N. Korea and Iran it's a distraction and a weapon to use against those who rely on it irrationally!

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