Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Exit Strategy? What Exit Strategy?

Did anything President Obama say in his address to the nation last night about ending our involvement in Libya sound like a real exit strategy? Going in, he said "Kadhafi must go". Now that's only "the preferred outcome". Libya IS going to become a major problem when (not if) Kadhafi puts down this little rebellion.

NATO has no stomach for aggressively getting rid of the man but if he remains entrenched he will be a threat to world peace and our security. Do you really think he won't come after us and the rest of NATO as soon as it suits him? This little "kinetic military action" is more likely to make the world a less safe place unless Kadhafi is gone. This is not much different than what happened in Iraq. The first time we went into Iraq, we left in place a brutal dictator who was also a threat to both the safety of Iraqi citizens and stability in the Arab world.

So, what are we doing to ensure Kadhafi's gone? Nothing of substance really. He's perfectly capable of putting down this rebellion with his military might and he's seems committed to do just that. What is the more likely outcome with us sitting on the sidelines and not doing anything concrete to ensure he's captured and made to answer for his terrorist crimes against other countries? History tells us it's more likely than not that Kadhafi won't be gone. Why is that a risk we seem willing to take when we know what he's capable of?

For one thing, he appears to have WMD ... mustard gas at least if not others also. Is he crazy enough to use them? Of course! Is he crazy enough to slaughter those who appear to be rebels and all who appear to have supported them? Absolutely, yes! A proper assessment of risk versus consequences dictates we get him out of there, period.

Maybe the risk of him remaining in control there seems 'acceptably low' to our leadership but the consequences resulting from his survival there would be unacceptable. The consequences of his staying in control are far worse than the consequences of going after him. The history of weakness toward despots tells us it's unwise to do a 'limited engagement' with this nut case. Last, his survival there would encourage other despots in the Arab world to stand up to us like Kadhafi has. That's soooooooo not a good thing!

So, why are we pussy-footing around with this knuckleheaded despot? For strictly political correctness reasons. Not a good way to run foreign policy.

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